Immediate Risks to Global Supply Chains

January 31st, 2008 at 02:05am Sean Delaney - Iasta UK

In a previous entry I talked about how the utilisation of Spend Analysis software makes the rational of a vendor reduction programme less relevant. When reading the latest report from The World Economic Forum on the risks for 2008 I am convinced this logic will now start to gain more momentum.

According to the WEF there are 4 major risks to be aware of over the forthcoming decade. What is most disturbing is that all 4 will have an immediate effect on sourcing decisions.

In summary these are:

• Systematic Financial risk – this has already been well documented in recent weeks. The lack of liquidity in markets will have a negative effect on business investment and therefore increase capacity constraints in the global supply chain.

• Food Security – Global food prices are at record highs whilst stocks are at 25 year lows….”population growth, lifestyle changes, use of crops to manufacture bio fuels and climate change – are likely to sharpen over the coming decade”. There is already evidence of this in the UK. During the last 10 years land used for Agricultural purposes has fallen by 8%. In addition land still in use is increasingly being used for the production of Bio fuels. The price of wheat is at all time high. Furthermore during the same period the population has grown by 2m to 60m – this is predicted to grow to 69m by 2027!

As anicdotal evidence of the scale of the shift the other day I was at my son’s children party. When I was talking to one of the Dads he mentioned that an old colleague was, until recently trading currencies and he is now trading livestock in Australia…buying millions and millions of dollars of cattle one day and selling the next. What’s more is he is achieving higher returns than he was when he was trading currencies.

• Supply Chain Vulnerability – “Improvements in technology and global logistics, along with reduced trade barriers, have led to a historic expansion of international and intra-regional trade over the past 20 years”. Although this has widely been seen as a benefit the WEF are saying now our risks are too concentrated in core areas. For example the concentration of raw material ownership in the hands of say State controlled funds or the impact on wage price increases in China.

• Energy – the increasing demand for energy coupled with the requirement to reduce CO2 emissions is going to cause difficulties. I am already seeing the growth in the demand for specialist energy buyers to mitigate organisational risk. However when we see 17% increase in fuel bills universally applied by all suppliers, clear evidence of collusion in the market and what is worse more political influence on the supply it seems that such a move is now punitive.

I would like to add a fifth risk that since none of these risks were mentioned in the same report for 2007 volatility caused by globalisation should be added too!

From this it is quite clear that there is need for global supply chains to be more diverse and as mentioned before this can be achieved with decent (real time as possible) spend analysis. Furthermore this technology should be used to monitor production, commitments and deliveries. Reports should also include commitment further down the supply chain.

The use of sourcing optimisation technology is now essential and especially the use of “what if” scenarios is a must. In fact the speed of change could require optimisation scenarios to be computed more frequently and not just at the point of “award”. This would allow for the inclusion of such things like the effect of climate changes to raw material stocks or the increase in the average wage in China.

It is now obvious that it should be a priority to use both of these technologies. However what has struck me is that combining these technologies together would achieve far more powerful results. I don’t know the exact probabilities by my guess is that the benefits would be exponential and thus reduce the probability of major a catastrophe in a global supply chain.

Entry Filed under: Analysts/Research, General, Global Supply Issues/Risk, Optimization, Spend Analysis, Technology

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